I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”

Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.

I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly - “No, Mike, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a bubble that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your friends are convinced the American people are not going to elect an idiot for president. You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him because of his latest crazy comment or his embarrassingly narcissistic stance on everything because everything is about him. And then you listen to Hillary and you behold our very first female president, someone the world respects, someone who is whip-smart and cares about kids, who will continue the Obama legacy because that is what the American people clearly want! Yes! Four more years of this!

You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real. Trying to soothe yourself with the facts - “77% of the electorate are women, people of color, young adults under 35 and Trump cant win a majority of any of them!“ - or logic - “people aren’t going to vote for a buffoon or against their own best interests!“ - is your brain’s way of trying to protect you from trauma. Like when you hear a loud noise on the street and you think, “oh, a tire just blew out,” or, “wow, who’s playing with firecrackers?” because you don’t want to think you just heard someone being shot with a gun. It’s the same reason why all the initial news and eyewitness reports on 9/11 said “a small plane accidentally flew into the World Trade Center.” We want to - we need to - hope for the best because, frankly, life is already a shit show and it’s hard enough struggling to get by from paycheck to paycheck. We can’t handle much more bad news. So our mental state goes to default when something scary is actually, truly happening. The first people plowed down by the truck in Nice spent their final moments on earth waving at the driver whom they thought had simply lost control of his truck, trying to tell him that he jumped the curb: “Watch out!,” they shouted. “There are people on the sidewalk!”

Well, folks, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you believe Hillary Clintonis going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut. As of today, as things stand now, I believe this is going to happen - and in order to deal with it, I need you first to acknowledge it, and then maybe, just maybe, we can find a way out of the mess we’re in.

Don’t get me wrong. I have great hope for the country I live in. Things are better. The left has won the cultural wars. Gays and lesbians can get married. A majority of Americans now take the liberal position on just about every polling question posed to them: Equal pay for women - check. Abortion should be legal - check. Stronger environmental laws - check. More gun control - check. Legalize marijuana - check. A huge shift has taken place - just ask the socialist who won 22 states this year. And there is no doubt in my mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on their X-box or PlayStation, Hillary would win in a landslide.

But that is not how it works in America. People have to leave the house and get in line to vote. And if they live in poor, Black or Hispanic neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in, everything is being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot. So in most elections it’s hard to get even 50% to turn out to vote. And therein lies the problem for November - who is going to have the most motivated, most inspired voters show up to vote? You know the answer to this question. Who’s the candidate with the most rabid supporters? Whose crazed fans are going to be up at 5 AM on Election Day, kicking ass all day long, all the way until the last polling place has closed, making sure every Tom, Dick and Harry (and Bob and Joe and Billy Bob and Billy Joe and Billy Bob Joe) has cast his ballot? That’s right. That’s the high level of danger we’re in. And don’t fool yourself — no amount of compelling Hillary TV ads, or outfacting him in the debates or Libertarians siphoning votes away from Trump is going to stop his mojo.


“You need to stop living in denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real.”




Here are the 5 reasons Trump is going to win:

1. Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit. I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes - Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states - but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat). In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.

From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England - broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still try to talk a good line but are really just looking forward to rub one out with a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big check before leaving the room. What happened in the UK with Brexit is going to happen here. Elmer Gantry shows up looking like Boris Johnson and just says whatever shit he can make up to convince the masses that this is their chance! To stick to ALL of them, all who wrecked their American Dream! And now The Outsider, Donald Trump, has arrived to clean house! You don’t have to agree with him! You don’t even have to like him! He is your personal Molotov cocktail to throw right into the center of the bastards who did this to you! SEND A MESSAGE! TRUMP IS YOUR MESSENGER!

And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.

2. The Last Stand of the Angry White Man. Our male-dominated, 240-year run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did this happen?! On our watch! There were warning signs, but we ignored them. Nixon, the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule that said girls in school should get an equal chance at playing sports. Then they let them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated! Oh, the humanity!

That’s a small peek into the mind of the Endangered White Male. There is a sense that the power has slipped out of their hands, that their way of doing things is no longer how things are done. This monster, the “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds,” has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders! You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted human rights and a fuckin’ hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop!

3. The Hillary Problem. Can we speak honestly, just among ourselves? And before we do, let me state, I actually like Hillary - a lot - and I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action. She’s a hawk, to the right of Obama. But Trump’s psycho finger will be on The Button, and that is that. Done and done.

Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump - it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected. That’s why she fights against gays getting married one moment, and the next she’s officiating a gay marriage. Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her. No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.

4. The Depressed Sanders Vote. Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton - we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ‘08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” - meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary. A depressed voter. Because, when you’re young, you have zero tolerance for phonies and BS. Returning to the Clinton/Bush era for them is like suddenly having to pay for music, or using MySpace or carrying around one of those big-ass portable phones. They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do something to give them a reason to support her — and picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket - that was an exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.

5. The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything. You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like. Remember back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a professional wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because they’re stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political intellectual. They did so just because they could. Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system. This is going to happen again with Trump.

Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show.

(Next week I will post my thoughts on Trump’s Achilles Heel and how I think he can be beat.)

ALSO: http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/michael-moores-5-reasons-why-trump-will-win


Michael Moore








俺には、君たちが今何をしているかわかる。激しく首を横に振っているだろう。 「いや、マイク、そんなことは起こらない!」とか言って。残念ながら、君たちは外界から隔離された狭い範囲の世界で生きている。その世界には、隣にエコー室があり、そこで君たちとその友人たちは、アメリカ人はバカ野郎を大統領に選んだりしないって確かめあっている。

あらゆることがトランプがらみだから、奴のクレージーなコメントとか、こっちが恥ずかしくなるくらい自分に酔っている奴のスタンスのおかげで、君たちは奴に対して、呆れたりあざ笑ったりしている。その頃、ヒラリー・クリントンの話を聴いて、私たちの最初の女性大統領、世界が敬う人、頭が切れて子供たちを大事にし、オバマのレガシーを継承する人に注目している。なぜならこれこそ、アメリカ人が求めているものだからさ! もちろんこれからの4年間もこのままさ!






勘違いしないでほしい。俺は自分の住んでいる国に大きな希望を持っている。状況は好転している。左派はジェイムズ・D・ハンターが言うところの「文化戦争」に勝った。ゲイとレズビアンは結婚できるようになった。アメリカ人の大多数が今や、世論調査の質問に、寛大な答えをしている。女性の同一賃金――わかった。中絶は合法であるべき――わかった。環境法の強化――わかった。銃の規制強化――わかった。マリファナの合法化――わかった。大きな変化が起きている。 今年22州で勝利した社会主義者のサンダースにぜひ尋ねてほしい。そしてもしみんなが自宅のカウチからXboxとかプレイステーションで投票できるなら、ヒラリーが圧勝するのは間違いないと思う。


みんな、この質問に対する答えがわかっているだろう。いちばん過激な支持者がいる候補者は誰なのか? どの熱狂的なファンが午前5時に起きて、朝から晩まで全力を尽くし、はるばる投票所まで行って、それだけじゃなくてトムとかディックとかハリーとか(そしてボブ、ジョー、ビリー・ボブ、ビリー・ジョー、ビリー・ボブ・ジョーとか)全員を投票に行かせるだろうか? その通り。これが俺たちが今最大級の危機に陥っている状況なんだ。そして自分をごまかさないでほしい。どんなに説得力のあるヒラリーのテレビ広告が流れても、討論会でヒラリーがトランプに事実を質しても、共和党主流派の自由主義者たちがトランプから票を吸い上げても、奴の呪術を止めることは出来ないだろう。




トランプは、ペンシルベニア州の最近の世論調査でヒラリーをリードしていて、オハイオ州では同点だ。同点? トランプがこれだけ無茶苦茶な発言と行動しているのに、どうしてこの大統領選レースは、これほど接戦になっているのか? これは多分、ヒラリーがNAFTA(北米自由貿易協定)を支持したから、製造業中心の中西部の州の壊滅を助長した、とトランプが発言しているからだ。クリントンがTPPを支持したから、この4州の人々をひどく不利な立場に置いた他の貿易政策に関して、トランプはクリントンを攻撃するだろう。




イギリスで起きたことは、ここでも起きるだろう。ボリス・ジョンソンみたいなエルマー・ガントリー(口がうまいやり手のセールスマン)が現れ、どんなにひどい状態になるとわかっていても、今がチャンスなんだ!と確信させるように適当なことを大衆に言うだけだ。アメリカンドリームをぶち壊した奴ら全員に貼り付け! そしてアウトサイダーのドナルド・トランプが、奴らを懲らしめるためにやって来た! トランプに同意する必要はない! 好きになる必要だってない! トランプは、君らが嫌な人間たちに投げつける火炎瓶だ。それでなくても、彼らは君らに火炎瓶を投げつけてくるんだ! メッセージを送れ! トランプは君らのメッセンジャーだ!



我がアメリカ男性たちが主導してきた240年間の統治は、終わろうとしている。一人の女性が、その座を引き継ごうとしている! なんでこんな事態になったんだ?! 注目! 警告のサインは出ていたが、俺たちはこれを見逃していた。ニクソンは、ジェンダーに冷たかったけど、タイトルIX(男女教育機会均等法)を作った。この法律は、学校で女子生徒も男子生徒と同じスポーツをする権利を持つべきだと言っている。その後女性たちは、民間ジェット機でパイロットにもなれるようになった。気がついたら、ビヨンセが今年のスーパーボウル(俺たちのゲームだ!)で、大勢の黒人女性と一緒にフィールドに雪崩込み、拳を突き上げ、男性の支配はここで終わった! と宣言していた。おお、なんてことだ! 

これは、危機に瀕している白人男性の心の中がかいま見える光景だ。本人の手から権力がすり抜けていき、彼らのやり方は、もはや容認されないという意識が芽生えている。この「フェミナチ」(保守派のフェミニストに対する蔑称)っていう怪物は、トランプが言ったような「目から血を流している、どこであっても血が出ている」(トランプが女性の生理を侮蔑した発言)奴らが、俺たち男を征服するんだ。そして今や、俺たちに指図してきた黒人の男に8年間耐えなきゃいけなかったのに、今度は大変なことは傍観する、そして威張り散らす女のもとで、8年間を過ごすことになるのか? その後の8年間は、ゲイがホワイトハウスに入るのか! それからトランスジェンダーか! 君たちは、そんなことを目の当たりにする。その時までには、動物にも人権を認められているだろう。そしていまいましいハムスターが、この国を統治していることだろう。これは止めないといけないな!


ここだけの話だけど、正直に話していいか? そして俺たちが話す前に、これだけは言わせて欲しい。俺はヒラリー・クリントンが好きだった、それもかなりな。ヒラリーは、不当な濡れ衣を着せられてきたと思う。ヒラリーがイラク戦争に賛成したから、俺は二度とヒラリーに投票しないと決めた。今日まで、そのつもりでいた。ファシストもどきが最高司令官になるのを防ぐために、俺はその決心を改めようと思っている。






クリントンに投票しないバーニーの支持者に、やきもきするのはやめよう。俺たちはクリントンに投票するんだ! 世論調査をみたら、今年ヒラリーに投票するサンダース支持者の数は、2008年にオバマに投票したヒラリー支持者の数より多い。ここが問題じゃない。




5. ジェシー・ベンチュラ効果。





HBOのトーク番組「リアル・タイム・ウィズ・ビル・マー」の共和党全国大会特集に出演した後、ホテルに戻ろうとしたら、ある男が俺を引き止めた。 「マイク、俺たちはトランプに投票しなきゃいけない。俺たちは大改造する必要がある」。そういうことか。それだけで、彼にとっては十分だった。「大改造する」ためなんだ。トランプ大統領誕生は、まさに大改造になるだろうし、投票した人々の大部分は、外野席に座って、そんなリアリティ・ショーを見たいと思っている。